Greece To Leave the Euro

May 18, 2012

Is it just me, or does everyone think that accepting Greece into the Euro was one of the most stupid decisions made during the 20 century?

I can imagine the conversation between the Greek government and the ECB…..

“So are you certain that these Greek debt numbers are right?”

“Oh yes, of course… why would we lie to you?”

“That’s fine then, welcome aboard”

There is of course a good argument that Greece would be economically screwed were it a Euro member or not. Any country that doesn’t collect income tax from its people is going to be fucked either way, so from the Greek view point membership provided a safety net and vital access to the ECB’s cash reserves.

The Germans are so determined to make their fiscal experiment work, as well as benefiting from the current economic differences between member states, that bailing out a failing country with ever increasing debt was always on the cards. The popular term is “kicking the can down the road” which perfectly describes the ECB’s action so far. Rather than address the fundamental problems of countries that have been spending more than they earn and now can’t afford to repay it, they have instead just lent them more money…. as long as they made noises along the lines of promising to try to spend less in future.

The big problem with financial austerity is that the politicians and finance experts know what needs to be done, but as they are elected by people who like having stuff…. mostly for nothing, getting elected to actually carry out some austerity is proving difficult.

Even in the UK, for all the talk of austerity, we will be borrowing more during the first 5 years of the coalition government than Gordon Brown and Tony Blair ripped through in 13 years. What is bizarre, is that we seem to be making massive cuts to services, but not actually saving any money, reducing spending, borrowing or our debts.

If this is austerity, and financial prudence, I would hate to see frivolous spending!

So what’s going to happen when Greece leave, or are thrown out of the Euro?

It looks to me like this is going to happen sooner rather than later, and there are two main possible outcomes.

The first is that an orderly exit is planned for Greece to return to the Drachma, paving the way for instant devaluation which should make them more competitive against the Euro. Good news for cheap holidays possibly, and Taramasalata sales, but due to the lack on competitive industry in Greece, unlikely to solve its problems in the longer term. The upside for the Euro is that confidence would be instantly raised as it would then become less likely that Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland would end up leaving.

The second option is for a forced exit, if Greece were to default on its latest debt repayments, then a rapid exit would be forced upon it. Ironically, Greece would still receive European funding in order to dig itself out of the mess it is in even outside of the Euro mechanism.

Markets are expecting to see Greece leave, and a strong rebound is then expected, especially in banking stocks.

Whether Greece’s departure will prevent a run on the banking systems of the southern states is not clear, as the markets have a habit of picking at the carcass until the meat is gone, so it is by no means guaranteed that Greece leaving the Euro will secure the Euro’s survival. It is expected that the Spanish banking system will be thoroughly tried and tested in the coming months as the markets dictate who stands and falls in this crisis.

Spanish bonds are already trading at unsustainable levels, meaning that raising more money is going to be near impossible for them, well…… if they are to stand any hope of ever paying it back that is.

Where is it going to end and what does it mean for us…… well, it means, that we did well not to get tied up in a halfhearted fiscal pact of monetary union that had no control of each states borrowing levels. It also means that due to the fact that the UK Banking sector provides much of the funding across the Euro zone that our banks are liable for billions in defaults, and we all know where they like to come to to restore their balance sheets when their gambles fail to pay off.

So, to summarize, whatever happens, the outcome is looking a bit bleak…… this experiment of taking a collection of tourist destinations, giving them the same currency and hoping it pans out looks to have failed…… there is an old saying, “you can’t polish a turd”….. it turns out to be based on fact.

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Apple Shares Predicted to hit $1000

April 4, 2012

Analysts have predicted that Apple shares still have a long way to go from their current April 2012  value of $630.

Apple share have so far risen 50% so far this year, and are predicted to continue to rise on the strength of Apples strong product range, and forthcoming Apple TV products.

Brian White from Topeca Capital Markets states his case for the rise and includes such factors as the management of Tim Cook who took over from Steve Jobs as showing the markets that the company is in safe hands. Since Tim Cook took over, the share price has increased by over 60%, showing that the company is robust and has a strong future after the incredible success of Steve Jobs.

Apple are being predicted to be the worlds first $1 Trillion company, on the back of future growth in China and other emerging markets for the new iPhone, iPad, iPods and Apple TV.

Where will the share price end up?

Give us your opinions?

Apple iPad Sales hit 2 Million

June 1, 2010

Within a few weeks of its US Launch, and only days since its UK and European launch, iPad has proved another hit for the Apple stable.

The actual practical usefulness of the iPad is yet to be confirmed, but as a “Large iPhone” concept it seems to be popular. Whether this continues over time is yet to be seen as the iPad does lack some of the more basic connectivity of notebooks, with features such as usb ports and card readers absent. This might make the iPad less practical in real life than has been imagined.

With 2 million in sales in the first few weeks after launch, the iPad is doing better that the iPhone did on it’s launch, which is mightily impressive, especially in the current difficult trading conditions.

Is the iPad set to become the default home surfing device? It does look like it. As a sitting room device it sits between a pda and a notebook, not a serious work tool maybe, but it certainly seems to have garnered an immediate fan base.

Apple overtake Microsoft in size

May 28, 2010

Apple have just pipped Microsoft to the title of largest tech company. Now with a capitalisation of $222 Billion, they have knocked Microsoft into second with only $219 Billion value.

The popularity of Apples hardware is difficult to argue with and when compared with the relative unpopularity (inspite of it’s use) of the windows platform. With the Uk launch today of the iPad, Apples star is on the rise.

Yandex sets its sights on Google

May 25, 2010

Yandex, the Russian search engine is having a good time. Currently up to 7th in the overall search traffic stats, ahead of Ask and Facebook, Yandex is looking to capitalise on its new English speaking engine.

It has been noted that for many searches, Yandex is quietly out performing Google and delivering much more suitable results than current google search is doing.

Will this progress continue? Will Yandex be able to out perform the likes of Bing? Watch this space…..

Google Caffeine Observations

May 23, 2010

Here is an interesting thing, the speed that your website loads is now critical to your web performance. We have a page within our site that is purely a navigation pages with all our necessary links on it. It is in general one of the most used pages on our site as all staff access it many times per day.

We have recently moved offices and were without a highspeed connection for the best part of a month. Because of this, some of us worked from home, or used mobile dongle connections in the office.

Now here is where it gets interesting…….. Googles Caffeine update has added average load times into the algorithm in order to speed up the web.

This opens up several points, like where does it get the data?
It turns out we supply in via Google analytics. If you views Googles webmaster tools, you can now see a graph of your sites speed performance. The mark the top 20th percentile as being fast, and the bottom 80th percentile as being slow.

Due to the volume of searches we were conducting via mobile connections, ( in a rural invironment I might add) we saw our average load time rise from a second to over 18 seconds.

At the 18 second point, our site disappeared off the front page of Google for “Search Engine Optimization”, causing a secondary drop in traffic so that the only hits we were then getting were 18 sec average load time.

We were initially stumped as to what had caused the fall from grace, and proceeded to double check ever single element of our process in order to establish the cause.

It turned out that not only had our own visits caused the problem, but we had given Google the data to decide to drop us from the rankings.

What this has done is to force us back to the drawing board, to speed up our design to the point that our new pages load in 0.8 sec ave, while having 900 k of data, some 6 times more than many of our front page competitors. This all means that we can carry more of our message than our competitors can and so drive sales.

The good news is that once we narrowed the problem down and took steps to fix it, we returned back into the top three, as if nothing had happened!

It raised a few questions, for example if you have a site that receives mostly mobile searches, you may well be penalised….. if you use Google analytics. How do you resolve that situation?

While I commend Google for their efforts, the current system is quite bug ridden, as potentially you could affect a competitors rankings by repeatedly loading their site using a mobile device…….. it is surely just a matter of time before someone does just that?

as one of the leading Search engine Optimization companies in the UK, it is important to stay one step of ahead of the major engines, but with this update it is difficult to pre guess which way they will go with it. One thing is for certain, if you have a slow site, you should remove Analytics as soon as possible as you will start to slide in the rankings eventually.

Find out more Search Engine Optimization

Google gains more share of the search market

May 11, 2010

Google has had a fantastic April, seeing it’s share of the search market grow by 2 points in the US to over 71%. By contrast, Yahoo saw a drop of 1% dipping below 15% share and Bing dropped 2% falling back below 10% once more, inspite of the massive $100M marketing investment in Microsofts new engine.

This must be worrying news not only for Bing, but also for Yahioo who are going to be using Bing search later this year. It looks so far as if the public have not taken to Bing as much as was hoped. If you have seen the TV ads in the UK, I am not surprised, as they make no marketing sense to me at all, and seem to imply that their search engine will deliver random information, or perhaps I misunderstand the ad?

The biggest loser in all of this is Ask, who lost a massive 37% of their search volume in April, falling to just over 2%.

Where will this domination by Google end? Good question, I believe that it will require a different approach in order to topple Google and I have a feeling that the big players aren’t brave enough to risk what they have in order to create a new search model, while new players now require massive funding in order to compete.

AOL to Dump Bebo

April 7, 2010

In the fast moving world of Social Media, success stories can become casualties almost overnight.

AOL, itself not in the best of shape following its de merger from Time Warner back in December, is looking to rid itself of Bebo, the Social Networking site favoured by the youth of the UK.

Having been soundly thrashed by Facebook in its attempts to win favour worldwide, AOL are now looking to either sell or shut down the loss making site. Bought only 2 years ago for $850m, it is another faller in the battle for online dominance.

iPad launch lives up to the hype

April 5, 2010

With the launch of the ipad, it was estimated to have made 700,000 sales, outstripping the prediction of 350,000 expected on day one.

Although it is still not totally clear how the ipad will perform over time and what it’s primary roles will be, Apple are reportedly very happy with the uptake as well as their stock levels.

Online Ad Earnings outstrip TV for First Time

April 4, 2010

In 2009 the investment in online advertisements and ad spend out stripped traditional TV media, according to the Internet Advertising Bureau.

Internet Ad spend increased 4.2% to £3.54 Billion, this shows that online ads took 23% of ther total spend, compared with 21.9% for TV.

In spite of the recession, the internet has proved itself to be more resilient to difficulties and has overcome more traditional trading handicaps.

Wise business men and women are investing in the future of their companies and online is giving the best return on their investment. It is more important than ever to increase exposure to potential clients, especially when there are less prospects with money to spend.

Find out how you can do more with less budget, talk to Deeho Search Engine optimization to find out more.